We head into week 9 of the NFL with some heavy weight matchups set to take place. The Dolphins and the Chiefs in Germany. The Bills and the Bengals. Cowboys and Eagles. Browns and Cardinals. You know, all of the big matchups that people are invested in!
As always, my colleague Owen Smith and I held our weekly pick draft on Thursday where we pick our….
- Favorite Favorite
- Top Dawg
- Over
- Under
I’ll be providing a quick write up on my picks each week along with some additional plays that I have my eye on.
Let’s begin.
Pick #1 – Top Dawg – Dolphins +2
Daylight savings time has blessed us with an extra hour of sleep to make sure we are fully rested and ready to watch the Dolphins and the Chiefs face off in Germany.
I’m riding with the Dolphins +2. The Chiefs are struggling to find a rhythm on offense while the Fins are having the opposite of that issue. Hill, Waddle, and Mostert will prove to be too much for the strong Chiefs defense and the offensive woes will continue for Mahomes and company.
While I took the Dolphins +2, I expect them to win outright. Mahomes will be reminiscing about the days of old when he could say “f*** it, Tyreek down there somewhere” and Kelce will be fielding post game questions from reporters about Taylor Swifts Virgo Moon aligning with his Pisces Comet.
SIDE NOTE: My wife has discovered the gem that is Mike McDaniels. She asked if I’ve ever heard of him and said she saw a TikTok about him and thinks he is super funny. I’m on phase 3 of 6 in getting her to be an NFL super fan. Phase 3 was infiltrating her TikTok algorithm. Step 4? You don’t want to know step 4.
Pick #2 – Favorite Favorite – Colts -2.5
The Panthers are coming off of their first win of the season against the Houston Texans. The Colts, on the other hand, are riding the struggle bus behind three straight losses.
This feels like a “back on track” game for the Colts and a “back to reality” game for the Panthers.
The Colts have scored the ball well and will have a chance to get their defense a quality outing against a bad Panthers offense.
Give me the Colts to win by at least a field goal, but 10+ seems likely.
Pick #3 – Under – Commanders/Patriots U41
The Commanders are a tough team to judge this year. You’ve seem them fight tooth and nail with the best in the league, and you’ve seen them get beat handily by the worst of the worst (Bears). The Patriots have made the evaluation process simple. Are they playing a division opponent? No? Then they are bad.
I have some worries about this pick. No Sweat or Young for the Commanders leaves a lot of question marks for their defense and I hope that doesn’t bite me in the ass on this under.
In this 2019 Baker Mayfield (Sam Howell) vs. 2020 Baker Mayfield (Mac Jones) matchup, I think we will be in for an ugly game that is absent of a lot of scoring.
Pick #4 – Over – Cowboys/Eagles O47
Probably my favorite game of the week here. Are the Cowboys the real deal? They sure seem like it, but we’ve been here before. They have a perfect chance to prove it on the road against division rival Eagles.
The Cowboys are averaging 28.1 points/game and giving up 17 per game. The Eagles are a fraction behind at 28 points/game scored and 21.5 given up per game. On paper, this looks like an incredible matchup.
I’m expecting a shootout in Philly with the Cowboys squeaking out a 27-24 win.
Full Results
| Owen | Matt | |
| Favorite Favorite | Bengals -1.5 | Colts -2.5 |
| Top Dawg | Cowboys +3 | Dolphins +2 |
| Over | Colts/Panthers O43.5 | Cowboys/Eagles O47 |
| Under | Jets/Chargers U40.5 | Commanders/Pats U41 |
BONUS PICKS!!!
Rapid fire picks that I’ll be playing today…
Cardinals +12.5
Falcons -4
Commanders ML +124
Raiders ML -122
Colts Alt Spread -6.5 at +188
Wrapping Up
T’was an incredible Saturday of College Football. The first half of LSU/Alabama and Washington/USC was nothing short of football porn.
I won a whopping .42 units behind 14 plays yesterday. Was it exactly where we wanted to be? Nope. But it’s in the green and that’s what we care about. We can build on that today in the NFL.
If the Browns do not find a way to beat Clayton Tune and the Cardinals, this might be my last blog and I will be taking up a new hobby (pickle ball, arts and crafts, ice fishing, idk yet).
I’m also excited about the SNF matchup. Bengals might be back back and could use a statement win against the Bills.
Let’s have ourselves a day and make some cheddar, my friends.
Till next time,
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