We head into week 10 of the NFL season and the playoff picture is starting to be painted. While some of the top teams in the NFL enjoy the week off (Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles……………Rams), there are still some great matchups. The Browns visit the Ravens, the 49ers look to bounce back against the AFC South leading Jags, and the Lions travel to LA in what feels like a must-win for the Chargers. I’ll have my happy ass glued to the couch while I nurse the inevitable hangover that the city of Columbus will provide me.

As always, my colleague Owen Smith and I held our weekly pick draft on Thursday where we picked our….

  • Favorite Favorite
  • Top Dawg
  • Over
  • Under

I’ll be providing a quick write-up on my picks each week along with some additional plays that I have my eye on.

Let’s begin.

Pick #1 – Favorite Favorite – Lions -3

As mentioned above, the Lions travel to LA and take on the Los Angeles Chargers during the 4PM slate. The Chargers are coming off a blowout win on the road against the New York Jets.

Unfortunately for LA, Zach Wilson is not under center this upcoming Sunday. They’ll be faced with a much tougher challenge as Goff and company come to town on fresh legs after the bye weekend.

I expect this to be a high-scoring bout, but feel like the Lions have the edge coming off the bye weekend. This feels like a classic Chargers game where they have the ball with 2 minutes left down 4 and come up just short of the win. Chargers 20 Lions 24. Book it.

Pick #2 – Top Dawg – Vikings +3

Vikings are hanging around after their 1-4 start. They’ve rattled off four straight wins and have themselves in the playoff race, despite Kirk Cousins being out for the rest of the season. No need to fear. Joshua Dobbs is here.

The Saints are also sitting at 5-4, which feels underwhelming given their weak strength of schedule so far.

If you’re here for advanced analytics, you won’t find any on this pick. I’m taking the Vikings to cover +3 and believe they’ll win outright on the road.

Until the Saints unleash the greatest QB to ever step foot on a field (My Sweet King Jameis Winston), they’ll never live up to their full potential.

Pick #3 – Under – Falcons/Cardinals U43

Falcons = bad.

Kyler hasn’t played football in almost a year and doesn’t have a tremendous supporting cast to lean on in his return.

Don’t overthink this. It’ll be an ugly one.

Pick #4 – Over – Browns/Ravens O38

I’m breaking one of my cardinal rules and that is to never bet the over in any Steelers/Ravens/Browns head-to-head. However, this total feels awfully low. Deshaun has had a tremendous week of practice and the Ravens had their way with the Browns stout defense in their first go. Do I think it’s a shootout? No. But I expect the Browns to win 24-21 in what will be the pivotal moment of their 2023-2024 Super Bowl video.

Full Results

OwenMatt
Favorite Favorite49ers -3Lions -3
Top DawgTitans +1.5Vikings +3
OverTexans/Bengals O47Browns/Ravens O38
UnderBroncos/Bills U46.5Falcons/Cardinals U43

BONUS PICKS!!!

Rapid fire picks that I’ll be playing…

Colts ML -125

Jags ML +142 (Sorry Owen)

Giants/Cowboys O38.5

Raiders ML -105

Wrapping Up

I wrote this late Friday night because I’ll be out of town for the Ohio State game and do not expect I’ll be in any shape to write an article from the hotel room. Some of these lines may change, but remember we make these picks on Thursday.

Owen seems a bit comfortable with this lead. I’m feeling a 4-0 day coming on to eat away at that 6 point lead he holds after 9 weeks.

Let’s have ourselves a week and make some money, my friends. Go Browns.

Till next time,

Matty Blogs