I just deleted 5 paragraphs talking about how I fell in love with NFL football after stepping away from the game of basketball because who gives a shit? You’re not here for sappy love stories. You’re here to build generational wealth with the picks that I provide each week.

So, let’s just get into it. It’s Week 1. The vibes are higher than a Willie Nelson concert in Colorado (solid little double entendre because of weed and altitude. Nice job, Matthew).

We are already sitting at .500 after the Thursday night opener. Looking at this board, I’m not sure if I see a game on there that I dislike. So, I’m going to bet them all. Every single one.

Aristotle once said, “It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.” Well, I’m entertaining the thought of betting every single matchup, and my mind is far from educated, so I’m accepting that thought and passing it on to you all.

I’m going to do 1/4 units on each game. This will be a 1 time thing, but you only get to bet every week 1 game once (each year), so I’m taking advantage of the opportunity.

Let’s dive in.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

I’m a Browns fan. Just putting that on the table. I like this team and think it could be a really special season. It will come down to whether Deshaun Watson is able to perform at the level he did in 2020.

The defensive side of the ball is much improved adding some key pieces in free agency, most notably Za’Darius Smith.

The Bengals return to action as the Kings of the North. The offensive side of the ball will remain stacked with weapons all over the place. It looks like a Ja Morant Instagram live.

The defensive unit will be solid as well, however they did lose some pieces in the secondary that will be interesting to monitor in the early parts of the season.

In my College Football article, I bet against the Texas Longhorns because they’ve consistently proven that they’re not back. I’m taking a similar approach with this matchup. In a week one coin flip, I’m going to fade my Brownies and take the more proven Bengals. I sincerely will be rooting for this bet to fail.

The pick: Bengals -2

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

The Texans are in massive rebuild and it started with drafting C.J. Stroud to be the future of their organization. Stroud has a tall task at hand this season. There is not a ton of support for the rookie and he will have to elevate the players around him in order to win football games.

Baltimore comes in as a 9.5 point favorite at home. I think they will cover that behind a solid effort from Lamar Jackson and that strong defensive unit. It will be a tough environment for C.J. Stroud and I’m not sure they have the pieces to compete in this one.

The pick: Ravens -9.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburg Steelers

I’m already sick of this Kenny Pickett hype train that everyone is on. I’m not sold on them making a significant jump and have the Steelers finishing 4th in the division.

I think the 49ers have a great roster and will be a top 5 team in the NFL this season. Give me them with the points.

The pick: 49ers -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins at 1:00 PM is all I needed to see on this one.

The pick: Vikings -5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

I’ll be at this game. I’m excited to see Anthony Richardson suit up for the first time. I don’t think he will light the world on fire, but I do think it will be fun to watch.

The Jags are getting a lot of hype this offseason and are the betting favorites to win the weak AFC South. I think they get off to a good start and cover the spread to start the season.

The pick: Jags -4.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

If the Cardinals could just forfeit the season and draft Caleb Williams today, they would. This will be a rebuild year for Arizona and I suspect they’ll be patient in bringing Kyler Murray back onto the field.

Washington will test out Sam Howell under center, but they also could be in the market for a QB this upcoming draft if things don’t pan out.

I’m going to take the Cardinals to cover in this one. I’m not solid on Howell yet and think this game will be rather ugly and down to the wire.

The pick: Cardinals +7

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr will take the field in New Orleans for the first time as a Saint this weekend. I think they’re in the best position to win the God awful NFC South and I like the offense they’ll put on the field (Go Bucks)

I think they beat the aging Titans and cover the spread in front of their home crowd.

The pick: New Orleans -3

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Ew.

The pick: Falcons -3.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

I love the Eagles this year. That offense should be fun to watch and the Georgia defense will cause problems for opposing teams all year.

For New England, I simply don’t see it this year. I’m not a Mac Jones believer. They don’t have a ton of high caliber skill guys. I just don’t know how they compete with top tier teams this year.

Give me the Eagles on the road.

The pick: Eagles -4.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

It feels like the chargers have been knocking on the door for a few years now. This might be their chance to finally take the next step and play with the big boys.

Miami also has that chance, but they’ll be in a dog fight in their division all year with the Bills and Jets.

This game feels like a coin flip to me. But, I’ll take the Chargers to win at home.

The pick: Chargers -3

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith is a part of the illuminati and it’s my sole reason for picking the Seahawks -5.

The pick: Seahawks -5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

This one is interesting. I’m surprised the Bears aren’t favorite by more given the uncertainties at the other side of the ball.

I’m going to roll with Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears to cover and I’ll actually take the alternate line of -3

The pick: Bears -3 (+125)

Dallas Cowboys @ NY Giants

I’m surprised this line isn’t a bit tighter. I thought -2.5 for the Cowboys would be the spread.

I kind of like the Giants to cover in a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them walk away with a win.

The pick: Giants +3.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

I might be one of the last known believers of Russell Wilson. I think he has a chance to be good with Sean Peyton calling the shots.

I don’t know if going from Carr to Jimmy G was the upgrade the Raiders were hoping for. I think the Broncos defense will be good enough to propel the Broncos to a week 1 win.

The pick: Broncos -3.5

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Are the Jets the real deal with Rodgers under center? They seem to have all of the pieces to be successful this season, but they face a tall task in week 1.

I think this Bills team is one of the best in the NFL. Their incredible season last year was overshadowed by their absolute dud in the playoffs.

I feel like the bills have the edge in this match up and will play spoiler in Rodgers home debut as a Jet.

The pick: Bills -2.5

Wrapping Up

At 5AM this morning, this article felt like a good idea. Betting every game and providing little snippits for each matchup was a bit daunting. But it’s done and over and we get to move on and get rich.

I am so excited for this season. I think the Browns will have a great season. I think I might win every bet. I want to thank my wife. Without the money from her 401k that I withdrew without her knowledge, I would have never been able to fund this gambling season.

I expect to be able to replenish that by the end of week 3.

Let’s have ourselves a week 1.

Till next time,

Matty Blogs